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Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+84%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Colorado: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.27–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.8995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 0.28 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.27–0.89). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.250.88
20260.570.260.88
20270.570.260.89
20280.580.270.89
20290.580.270.89

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Yampa820231969
Thomasville820071992
Elbert820221998
Maybell520062002
Colona420141972
Castleton420241991
Marshall Pas420162012
Harmony320241978
Buford320161980
Rush320172017
Dolores319791974
Pagosa Spgs319721972
Walden320232023
Blackhead Pk320211995
Buffalo Park320231993
Deadman Rd.320241992
Fox Creek320211993
Baxter Pass320241994
Ragged Mtn.320191994
Rifle Falls320172001
Mesaverde Np320171998
Aspen220241980
Cheesman Lk220241977
Falfa220211975
Lost Lake220101990

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.