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Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Colorado

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+81%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Colorado: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.59 (95% range 0.28–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.28–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.59 (95% range 0.28–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.270.88
20270.580.270.89
20280.580.280.89
20290.590.280.90
20300.590.280.90

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Aspen1120251980
Elbert920251998
Yampa820231969
Blackhead Pk820251995
Thomasville820071992
Maybell520062002
Rollins Pass520251998
Colona420141972
Castleton420241991
Marshall Pas420162012
Gribbles Prk420252006
Buford320251980
Rush320172017
Dolores319791974
Pagosa Spgs319721972
Walden320232023
Buffalo Park320231993
Fox Creek320211993
Lake City 2320252017
Steamboat L.320251996
Baxter Pass320241994
Ragged Mtn.320251994
Rifle Falls320252001
Mesaverde Np320171998
Animas 2320252008

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.