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Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Montana

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Montana has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has risen sharply in Montana: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Montana is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Montana is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.21.03.4
20262.21.03.4
20272.21.03.5
20282.31.03.5
20292.31.13.5

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pagil Gulch1720242015
Libby Dam920241979
Ninemile920241993
Chuffey Spring920232017
Woodman820241968
Pablo Res.720231998
Kalispell620241971
Cramer Creek620192003
Greenough620021995
Fish Creek620241995
Skalkaho619981992
Clyde Park620242018
Arlee520241968
Inside Road520241990
Clancy520232015
Bull Mtn.520211995
Threemile Wa420241993
Highwood420241971
Chestnut420241968
Reed Point420241978
Whitefish Lake420242016
Wise River420221994
Cleveland320171981
Jordan320181988
Forsyth320231988

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.