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Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.4–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.4–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.44.3
20272.81.44.3
20282.81.44.3
20292.81.44.3
20302.81.44.3

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elkton2820251972
Green2620251994
Svensen2419921990
Sandy River2220061993
Canby1720251993
Desolation1619931993
Mt Hood1420251973
Barnes Val1319841971
Dayton1320251973
Tualatin1120251968
Wallowa1020252025
Garfield820251973
Selma820251993
Fisher820011998
Umpqua720251968
Glasgow720251986
Troy720251992
Flora620231988
Imnaha620251972
Adair620251971
Scio620251971
Eightmile619921991
Bly619941994
Badger Creek620021992
Newbridge620251992

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.