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Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-42%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
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Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Svensen2419921990
Tualatin2320241968
Sandy River2220061993
Green2120241994
Desolation1619931993
Elkton1420241972
Barnes Val1319841971
Garfield1320231973
Adair1120241971
Mt Hood1020241973
Umpqua820241968
Glasgow820241986
Fisher820011998
Scio720241971
Scappoose720231995
Flora620231988
Eightmile619921991
Bly619941994
Emigrant Lake 2620242003
Badger Creek620021992
Coquille620241994
Salem620241993
Dayton520241973
Blue River519941994
Barnhouse519991999

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.