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Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in South Dakota has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in South Dakota is projected to rise about 214% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+214%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±227.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in South Dakota is projected to rise about 214% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.005.7
20262.70.005.7
20272.70.005.8
20282.70.005.8
20292.70.005.8

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elk Mountain3420041992
Norbeck2820021992
Hill City1420131992
Englewood1420211992
Silver City1320121992
Rochford1120181992
Wind Cave Np920241999
Roubaix Lk919911967
Black Fox920171992
Custer620231967
Forbes420152015
Long Draw420241992
Geddes320121973
Pleasant Val320241992
Lennox220241980
Raymond219891989
Roswell219901967
Laplant219901971
Promise220121973
Owanka219911991
Volunteer219851971
Reva220141988
Ardmore220122002
Lightning Cr220221992
Lane 2220102005

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.