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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in West Virginia has surged: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+225%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in West Virginia: up 225% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in West Virginia is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in West Virginia is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.44.0
20262.71.44.0
20272.71.44.0
20282.71.44.0
20292.81.54.1

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rio1619951974
Bowden1220241993
Glady1220242001
Denmar1120231980
Glade Run1020021988
Bemis620242001
Green Bank620241977
Glade Run 2620242004
Valley Head520241966
Richwood520241980
Meadowville520241972
Ruthbelle520241975
Bismark420231976
Sleepy Creek419901966
Three Forks320241971
Washburn319911991
Mt Storm319751970
Yellow Spg320211974
Smoot220222013
Olcott220032003
Lost River220221996
Shanghai220221995
Mo Of Seneca220231970
Greer220231971
Hix119981978

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.