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Species · Idaho · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Idaho

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Idaho has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-13%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Idaho is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Idaho is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.002.9
20271.10.002.9
20281.10.002.9
20291.10.002.9
20301.10.002.9

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Naples1820251972
Lolo Pass1220161994
Coolin1120251986
Ririe620251992
Mivoden420251977
Rochat Divde420251993
Centerville420251982
Sunbeam420191994
Nezperce Nf419991992
Avery320251983
Gifford320171972
Leadore320221975
Alturas319871968
Cabarton320241985
Nezperce220121989
Grangeville220231986
Baker220241975
Cascade219831968
Squirrel220241971
Pocatello220191987
Marble Creek220221988
Joel220241989
Burgdorf220151996
Yellow Pine220161998
Dougal Res220091988

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.