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Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Washington

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Washington has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-25%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Washington. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Washington is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.5–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Washington is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 5.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 2.5–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.66.3
20274.42.66.3
20284.42.66.3
20294.42.66.2
20304.42.56.2

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rainier4920251993
Deception3020181992
Chewelah2420211977
Everett2320251975
L Pend O Nwr2120241995
Leavenworth2020241981
Twisp1820241969
Keller1820071968
Issaquah1819871969
Port Angeles1720251970
Snowden1720251971
Laurier1720251995
Mendota 31720252005
Camas1520181977
Mukilteo1420251993
Warm Beach1120171968
Mendota1119881977
Mendota 21120001989
Kamilche1020251968
Index1019701968
Tonasket1020181982
South Elma1020241975
Deer Park1020151994
Pe Ell1020251993
Carnation1020251988

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.