BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in New Jersey has surged: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+184%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in New Jersey: up 184% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New Jersey is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.91–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.91–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New Jersey is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.91–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.853.9
20262.40.873.9
20272.40.883.9
20282.40.904.0
20292.40.914.0

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake2920241966
Midvale1720221967
Dover1720231977
Croton1020071971
Hope519941970
High Point420241977
Pottersville420181978
Croton 2420242008
Ramseysburg420241995
Gillette320241988
Cranbury320132005
Bloomsbury220241969
Sandbrook120211970
Passaic119691969

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.