BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Utah has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-57%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Utah: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.001.1
20260.180.001.0
20270.170.001.0
20280.160.001.0
20290.150.001.0

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Sal2519981993
M Warner Res719931993
Hardware Ranch720231995
Uintah Nf719941987
La Sal 2620062003
Ant Flat-Ogden Can620231997
Book Ridge520132003
Lost Cr. Res520181995
Bryce Canyon520241992
Richfield520161994
Grizzly Rdge420221986
Soapstone420242017
Moon Lake420031993
Skyline Driv419871987
Kamas420242010
Monticello420241999
Main Canyon419911987
Hyrum319781976
Logan Canyon320191998
Shivwitz319971994
Jensen320232002
Altonah220151992
Dragerton219731973
Saleratus Cr220111999
Red Spur Mtn.220231998

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.