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Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Utah has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-67%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Utah: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Utah is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.190.001.0
20270.180.001.0
20280.170.001.0
20290.150.001.0
20300.140.000.99

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Sal2519981993
M Warner Res719931993
Hardware Ranch720231995
Uintah Nf719941987
La Sal 2620062003
Kamas620252010
Book Ridge520132003
Lost Cr. Res520181995
Bryce Canyon520241992
Richfield520161994
Grizzly Rdge420221986
Soapstone420242017
Moon Lake420031993
Monticello420241999
Ant Flat-Ogden Can420251997
Main Canyon419911987
Hyrum319781976
Logan Canyon320191998
Shivwitz319971994
Altonah220151992
Dragerton219731973
Saleratus Cr220111999
Red Spur Mtn.220231998
Lynn220091982
Fayette219931993

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.