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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-58%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.650.002.8
20270.620.002.8
20280.580.002.7
20290.540.002.7
20300.510.002.7

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow3720251993
Hatcher Pass1420251982
Cottonwood1119901987
Petersville820251987
Cohoe720232013
Kanektok Riv720052001
Chena Hot Sp619901985
Wasilla619831983
Mcgrath620221997
Craig520221987
Sheep Mtn520251983
King Salmon520241996
Seven Lakes520251991
Birch Lake420221993
Swan Lake Rd420251982
Chiniak420251985
Thorne Bay 2420222016
Mccarthy Rd2420241993
Whale Pass420222022
Manley Ht Sp420221994
Togiak River420032001
Livengood320192006
Chistochina320252002
Seward319921983
Goose Bay319821975

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.