BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Alaska

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-58%Since 1973
87Routes In State
48Years

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in Alaska

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska is projected to fall about 73% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2029
0.45Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.695% range
±82%Backtest error
19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.600.002.8
20260.570.002.7
20270.530.002.7
20280.490.002.6
20290.450.002.6

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Alaska.
Willow3920241993
Hope1620241993
Sheep Mtn1120171983
Cottonwood1119901987
Burma Road1020241996
Swan Lake Rd820231982
Cohoe720232013
Kanektok Riv720052001
Kalifonsky620231982
Chena Hot Sp619901985
Wasilla619831983
Mcgrath620221997
Craig520221987
Chiniak520241985
King Salmon520241996
Birch Lake420221993
Thorne Bay 2420222016
Kodiak 2420241985
Nicholai Sl420241993
Mccarthy Rd2420241993
Whale Pass420222022
Manley Ht Sp420221994
Togiak River420032001
Livengood320192006
Seward319921983

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.