BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in New York has surged: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+143%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in New York: up 143% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New York is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New York is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151119
2026151119
2027151119
2028151120
2029151120

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catskills5220151967
Parishville3620241968
Underwood 23620092005
Mcdonough3420171967
Ballston Lk3019951967
Inlet2920171979
Old Forge2820061971
North Easton2520241967
Old Forge 22520192007
Dryden2420241968
Hauppauge2320181966
Meridale2220241967
Oneonta2220241968
Dannemora2220061968
S Berne 22220242014
Cicero Ctr2120241966
Manorville1920241966
Mt Hope1920101969
Sabattis1919831966
Platte Cove1820181968
N Wilmurt1819981967
Degrasse1820241980
Duanesburg1720241966
Branchport1720241967
Warrensburg1720191966

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.