BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in New York has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+149%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in New York: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New York is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New York is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026151019
2027151019
2028151119
2029151120
2030151120

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catskills5220151967
Underwood 23620092005
Mcdonough3420171967
North River3420251966
Ballston Lk3019951967
Inlet2920171979
Old Forge2820061971
Dryden2520251968
Old Forge 22520192007
S Berne 22420252014
Hauppauge2320181966
Mt Morris2220251969
Dannemora2220061968
Manorville1920241966
Mt Hope1920101969
Sabattis1919831966
Platte Cove1820181968
Penfield1820251968
N Wilmurt1819981967
Parishville1820251968
Phillips Cr1720251967
Branchport1720241967
Cicero Ctr1720251966
Warrensburg1720191966
Underwood1719961967

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.