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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Nebraska has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Nebraska is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Nebraska is projected to rise about 31% by 2030 — from 0.85 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.3
20271.10.002.3
20281.10.002.3
20291.10.002.3
20301.10.002.3

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford1420251980
Pine Ridge1120251999
Midway520251967
Brownson520212021
Liberty420031967
Holbrook419961976
Irvington420171968
Bartlett419761968
Crookston420252019
Maxwell420212021
Almeria320211969
Johnstown320251967
Johnson220251967
Belvidere219931967
Petersburg220061969
Oconto219711971
Sparta220211967
Winside220031967
Kimball219781978
Brady220251980
Arthur220252025
Brownlee220022002
Nenzel220242018
Bassett220252018
Chambers220252025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.