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Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+56%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has risen sharply in Indiana: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.14–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.14–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.130.59
20260.360.130.60
20270.370.130.60
20280.370.140.61
20290.380.140.61

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Knox620241982
Portage 2620242005
Columbia Cty420041994
Lakeville420242011
Gary319991993
Packertown319931980
Laporte320222000
Indiana Dune320241993
Kewanna219831983
Lagrange220171999
Hebron120221966
South Bend119911975
Middlebury120241992
Ellis120241970
Portage120022001
Crown Point120242000
Kankakee Sands120212011

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.