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Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+99%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Indiana: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.15–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±70.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.15–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±70.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.130.59
20270.370.130.60
20280.370.140.60
20290.380.140.61
20300.380.150.61

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Knox620251982
Columbia Cty420041994
Lakeville420242011
Portage 2420252005
Gary319991993
Packertown319931980
Laporte320222000
Indiana Dune320241993
Hebron220251966
Kewanna219831983
South Bend119911975
Middlebury120251992
Ellis120241970
Portage120022001
Crown Point120252000
Lagrange120251999
Kankakee Sands120212011

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.