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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Maryland

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Maryland has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

12×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Maryland: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Maryland is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Maryland is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.32.7
20262.01.42.7
20272.01.42.7
20282.11.42.7
20292.11.42.8

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Finzel3220241995
Jennings2820241995
Oldtown2120241970
Accident920171992
Accident 2920242018
Piney Grove720231995
Vindex520241966
Potomac Park520241970
Smithsburg419991977
Mt Nebo319911969
Green Ridge320241995
Floyd220241966
Williamsport220021987
Wolfsville220001981
Steyer220241996

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.