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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin has surged: up 201% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+201%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Wisconsin: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 67% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 67% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.214
2027118.315
2028128.515
2029128.615
2030128.715

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Land O Lakes3420161967
Wausaukee2920251980
Union Twp2520251966
Washington I2320251967
N Freedom2120251966
Mcnaughton1820241966
Bashaw1720251998
Hudson1520251967
Eagle River1520251966
Hatfield1519981970
Dresser1420241966
Raymond1420251976
Chaffey1320251967
Bayfield1320251967
Phillips1320251966
Amberg1320251980
Conover1320251998
Cumberland1220251967
Irma1220251967
Mukwonago 21220252005
Popple River1120251966
Amnicon Falls1120251998
Rhinelander1120231998
Iron River1020251967
Oconto Falls1020231968

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.