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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin has surged: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+223%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Wisconsin: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 9.1–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.614
2026128.715
2027128.815
2028129.015
2029129.115

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Irma3620241967
Washington I3620241967
Land O Lakes3420161967
Wausaukee3320241980
Eagle River2520241966
Raymond2520241976
Union Twp2420241966
Paris2120241969
Mukwonago 22120242005
Mcnaughton1820241966
Hudson1720241967
Conover1720241998
Iron River1620241967
Land O' Lakes 21620242017
River Falls1620241998
Hatfield1519981970
Saxeville1520241966
Dresser1420241966
Clintonville1320241967
Shanagolden1220241969
Popple River1220241966
Verona1220241991
Bayfield1120241967
Cumberland1120241967
Stratford1120241969

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.