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Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in New Hampshire has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has risen sharply in New Hampshire: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 16–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 16–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221628
2026221628
2027221628
2028221628
2029221628

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lempster3720241966
Canterbury3220241966
Wilmot2520241966
Clarksville2220241966
Dixville Notch 22120242018
Dover1820241966
Fitzwilliam1720241966
Strafford1620241966
Dixvil Notch1620171966
Epsom1520231966
Concord1520241966
Walpole1520241966
Jefferson Hl1520241966
Glen1520241975
Mt Chocorua1420241966
Brentwood1319981966
Gilmantn I W1320241969
Marlow1220241966
Franconia1120241966
Milan1120241966
East Kingston1120241999
Stratford1020241966
Peterborough720241966
Hopkinton620241966
Crawford Not619751966

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.