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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.48–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.48–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.554.8
20272.60.534.7
20282.60.514.7
20292.60.494.7
20302.60.484.7

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellington1920251968
Le Loup1720212000
Hopewell1420122000
Trading Post1320252000
Lincolnville1220242002
Barclay1020251967
Bucyrus1020252022
Olathe820211967
Seneca820221967
Dover720221969
Grantville720221967
Buckeye620231967
Berwet620252000
Olsburg620252000
Ashland519921986
Rock Creek 2520252022
Ellinor320251967
Chapman319811967
Kanopolis320251967
Beloit 2320182005
Goessel320252000
Thrall219701967
Dalton220041972
Wreford220241967
Albert219911967

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.