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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.45–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.45–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.524.8
20262.60.504.7
20272.60.484.7
20282.60.474.7
20292.60.454.7

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bucyrus2220242022
Le Loup1720212000
Hopewell1420122000
Wellington1220241968
Lincolnville1220242002
Rock Creek 21120242022
Olathe820211967
Seneca820221967
Dover720221969
Barclay720241967
Grantville720221967
Buckeye620231967
Ashland519921986
Hanover420231969
Olsburg420242000
Jewell 2320242006
Chapman319811967
Beloit 2320182005
Berwet320242000
Severance320242000
Thrall219701967
Dalton220041972
Wreford220241967
Ellinor220241967
Albert219911967

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.