BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts has increased: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 20–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025261934
2026271934
2027271934
2028272034
2029272035

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Belchertown7520241967
Brockton7120191967
Chesterfield4820241967
Wellfleet4120071966
Cape Cod Ns4020071989
Maynard3320221967
Gay Head2820241996
Wellfleet 22720242016
E Pepperell2519941966
N Orange2520241968
Cummington2220141968
Warren2120091968
Holden2120241977
Newburyport2020221967
Cummington 22020242015
S Barre1920241968
Chilmark1719831969
Pittsfield1520161967
Warren 21420242010
Sheffield1220221969
Ware River1220221993
Marion1120241966
Mansfield1120241968
Monterey1120242019
N. Andover1020241995

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.