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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has risen sharply in Massachusetts: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 20–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 25% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 20–34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261934
2027261934
2028271934
2029271934
2030272034

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton7120191967
Belchertown4320251967
Maynard4220251967
Wellfleet4120071966
Cape Cod Ns4020071989
Wellfleet 23420252016
Gay Head3020251996
Monterey2920252019
E Pepperell2519941966
S Barre2520251968
Mansfield2320251968
Cummington2220141968
Warren2120091968
N Orange2120251968
Chesterfield2120251967
Newburyport2020221967
Chilmark1719831969
Pittsfield1520161967
Holden1520251977
Cummington 21520252015
Sheffield1220221969
Ware River1220221993
Warren 21220252010
Marion1020251966
N. Andover1020251995

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.