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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in North Dakota has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in North Dakota is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.01–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±210.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in North Dakota is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.01–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.0
20260.510.001.0
20270.520.001.0
20280.520.001.0
20290.520.011.0

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie 2520162013
Abercrombie420121969
Gorham420181980
Turtle Mtns420241980
Walcott320211968
Kempton220081968
Loraine220191988
Denbigh220241968
Zap220191980
Glen Ullin220122000
Sheyenne Lk220161987
Montpelier220061995
Forman120161970
Sydney119781978
Edgeley120221982
Lake George119831983
Danzig119921992
Emerado120241973
Cooperstown120241969
Wimbledon120131989
Carson119971997
Buchanan120061989
Bowesmont119951995
Nash120161980
Lakota120051989

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.