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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota has surged: up 378% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+378%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Minnesota: up 378% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.6–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 4.6–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.14.37.8
20276.24.47.9
20286.24.58.0
20296.34.68.1
20306.44.68.2

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Minnetonka4120251969
Edwards2520241973
Knapp2120251967
Bemidji2119801967
Hart Lake1820251967
Chisholm1320242019
Lakeville1220251976
Brainerd1220241993
Millville1120251967
Sherry Lake1120221969
Little Fork1120241969
Glendale1120251993
Whitewater1120001994
St Stephen1020251976
Cromwell1020251968
Brook Park1020251998
Osseo920251968
Floodwood920251967
Sherburne Nr920251990
Wigwam Bay820231981
Austin820231994
Mahtowa820231993
Caledonia 2820252013
Pine River720251967
Debs720251969

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.