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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota has surged: up 367% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+367%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Minnesota: up 367% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.7–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.4 (95% range 4.7–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.14.37.8
20266.24.47.9
20276.24.58.0
20286.34.68.1
20296.44.78.2

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brook Park3520241998
Osseo3420241968
Minnetonka2920241969
Edwards2520241973
Knapp2320241967
Bemidji2119801967
St Stephen1820161976
Glendale1820241993
Hart Lake1720241967
Floodwood1720241967
Bigfork1720241993
Pine River1520241967
Chisholm1320242019
Brainerd1220241993
Sherry Lake1120221969
Little Fork1120241969
Whitewater1120001994
Sherburne Nr1020241990
Evergreen920241967
Babbitt920231994
Nebish920231982
Caledonia 2920242013
Wigwam Bay820231981
Austin820231994
Mahtowa820231993

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.