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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Ohio has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Ohio is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.36–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Ohio is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 0.62 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.36–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.331.7
20271.00.341.7
20281.00.351.7
20291.10.351.8
20301.10.361.8

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Garrettsvile2719911967
Wayland1220171992
Valley City1120251995
Pittsfield620241992
Middlefield620171967
Peru519691969
Hiram520251992
Napoleon220152004
Strongsville219951966
Petersburg220101996
New Somerset219931966
Lockport120251998
Kunkle120221995
Bloomville120231992
Kingsway120231997
N Baltimore120191988
Bismark119941985
Lenox120251966
Herner Crns120251967
Kenton120252007
Lucerne120081997
Lattasburg119941966
Fulton120042004
Maysville119921992
Limestone120252010

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.