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Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Iowa

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Iowa has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-capped Chickadee in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Iowa is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.19–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Iowa is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.2 (95% range 0.19–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.222.2
20271.20.212.2
20281.20.212.2
20291.20.202.2
20301.20.192.2

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alice819991967
Hudson720251968
Wales620161968
Red Rock520251968
Maquoketa520251968
Washington420221967
Clare420181975
Lafayette420252003
Bedford320151969
Rock Valley320151968
College Spgs 2320252011
Melrose220251975
West Liberty220241969
Brooklyn220101967
Desmoines219781968
Panther220251967
Prairieburg220181979
Dinsdale220241969
Washta220251967
Festina220241968
Davis Corner220251980
Garner219881975
Mccallsburg220192010
Mt Hamill120251967
Exline120251974

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.