BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont has surged: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+98%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Vermont: up 98% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 21 (95% range 13–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026201228
2027201228
2028201228
2029201328
2030211328

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher4820251968
North Pownal4220251966
Northfld Fls3920251980
Hinesburg3019941966
Marlboro2820251966
Gaysville2620251967
Middlesex2320251968
Newbury2220041986
Hardwick2220241966
East Calais2120251966
Landgrove2020251966
East Haven2020251966
Stowe1920241988
Shaftsbury1720251966
Newbury 21720232005
Stratton1620251966
Bristol1520251995
Grand Isle1220251967
St Johnsbury920251970
Post Mills820251966
S Wallingfrd820221966
Greensboro820251967
W Rutland720251966
Waterville719801967
S Reading420241966

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.