BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Vermont: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 20 (95% range 12–28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025201227
2026201228
2027201228
2028201228
2029201228

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
East Calais3220241966
Middlesex3120241968
Hinesburg3019941966
Landgrove2720241966
East Haven2220241966
Newbury2220041986
Hardwick2220241966
Gaysville1920211967
Stowe1920241988
Post Mills1720241966
Newbury 21720232005
St Johnsbury1620241970
Marlboro1520241966
Fletcher1420241968
Stratton1320241966
Northfld Fls1320211980
W Rutland1020241966
Shaftsbury920241966
S Wallingfrd820221966
Grand Isle820241967
Waterville719801967
North Pownal620241966
Greensboro520241967
Colchester520241986
S Reading420241966

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.