Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Virginia
Black-capped Chickadee in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-61%Since 1968
19Routes In State
53Years
Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in Virginia
long arc declinecomputed index
Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+8%Change by 2029
0.25Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5995% range
±19.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2026 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2027 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2028 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| 2029 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Virginia
| W Augusta | 9 | 2024 | 1982 |
| Stanley | 4 | 1989 | 1989 |
| Douthat | 3 | 2011 | 1992 |
| Concord | 3 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Edinburg | 2 | 1990 | 1988 |
| Rural Retrt | 2 | 2014 | 1994 |
| Mountain Lk. | 2 | 2018 | 1994 |
| Covington | 2 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Fincastle | 2 | 2003 | 1978 |
| Natural Brid | 2 | 1987 | 1976 |
| Saltville | 2 | 1986 | 1986 |
| Star Tannery | 1 | 1993 | 1977 |
| Gr North Mtn | 1 | 2024 | 1998 |
| Jerome | 1 | 1994 | 1971 |
| New Market | 1 | 1995 | 1992 |
| Shenandoa Np | 1 | 2005 | 2002 |
| Newbern | 1 | 1970 | 1968 |
| Iron Mtn. | 1 | 2002 | 1999 |
| Marion | 1 | 1982 | 1982 |
Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States
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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.