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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–0.59). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.59
20260.250.000.59
20270.250.000.59
20280.250.000.59
20290.250.000.59

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
W Augusta920241982
Stanley419891989
Douthat320111992
Concord319971997
Edinburg219901988
Rural Retrt220141994
Mountain Lk.220181994
Covington220241966
Fincastle220031978
Natural Brid219871976
Saltville219861986
Star Tannery119931977
Gr North Mtn120241998
Jerome119941971
New Market119951992
Shenandoa Np120052002
Newbern119701968
Iron Mtn.120021999
Marion119821982

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.