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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania has surged: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+149%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Pennsylvania: up 149% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 5.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.64.810
20277.74.810
20287.74.911
20297.85.011
20307.95.011

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette3320211971
Wild Creek3020251988
Rasselas2820221970
Logue2820251973
Canadensis2620251969
Pocono Summit 22020102004
Little Marsh1820241967
Odin1720251973
Eldred1720221973
Roulette 21720252022
Mawr Glen1620251966
Greentown1620241969
Sigel1520251981
Betula1420221975
English Ctr1419891966
Ryde1420051968
N Washington1320251967
Ridgway1320181966
Pocono Summit1220251966
Honesdale1220251972
Warrens Mill1220251971
N Pine Grove1120251969
Ramsey1120251968
Arnot1120251969
Marsh Hill1120251983

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.