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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania has surged: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+158%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-capped Chickadee Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-capped Chickadee has surged in Pennsylvania: up 158% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black-capped Chickadee Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.9 (95% range 5.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.64.810
20267.74.911
20277.85.011
20287.95.011
20297.95.111

Black-capped Chickadee Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Black-capped Chickadee in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roulette 24320242022
Roulette3320211971
Rasselas2820221970
Pocono Summit 22020102004
Odin1920241973
Little Marsh1820241967
Eldred1720221973
Sigel1620241981
Russell City1620241968
Arnot1620241969
Greentown1620241969
Marsh Hill1520241983
Poyntelle1520241969
N Pine Grove1420241969
Betula1420221975
English Ctr1419891966
Ryde1420051968
Ridgway1320181966
Canadensis1320241969
Rush1220241970
Margaret1220241973
Logue1120231973
Warrens Mill1120241971
Sugar Grove1120241980
Mill Run1120241978

Black-capped Chickadee Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowakansasmainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.