BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Missouri has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+46%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.10
20260.040.000.10
20270.040.000.10
20280.040.000.10
20290.040.000.10

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville320231995
Gildehouse319891989
Sweden219861986
Syracuse220072003
Marshfield220162016
Pulaski119771977
Peace Valley119901990
Pineville120192018
Cascade119851978
Akers119801976
Clementine119961974
Handley119901990
Reeds120182018
Hayden119971997
Eugene120222022
Ohio119871978
Rockingham119771977
Doe Run120242019
Bennett119981998
Osage Beach120092009
Palace120172014
Graniteville120111986

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.