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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+229%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cerulean Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.29–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.29–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.241.1
20260.660.251.1
20270.670.271.1
20280.680.281.1
20290.690.291.1

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front Royal2420241993
Big Meadows520241993
Shenandoa Np420241994
Ivanhoe419661966
Isom320101969
Rural Retrt220242024
Glenwood220171995
Mountain Lk.220131992
Pine Mtn.220241996
Newsoms219971997
W Augusta120211996
Bald Knob120241992
Stanley119661966
Tryme119841984
Nat Tunnel120022002
Gr North Mtn120242017
Partlow119771977
New Market120062006
Putnam120111969
Covington119831966
Fincastle119661966
Covesville119681967
Carters Brdg119681968
Shipman120231983
Loft Mtn120231994

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.