BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+172%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cerulean Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 172% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.72 (95% range 0.31–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.72 (95% range 0.31–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.670.271.1
20270.680.281.1
20280.690.291.1
20290.710.301.1
20300.720.311.1

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front Royal2720251993
Shenandoa Np920251994
Ivanhoe419661966
Isom320101969
Rural Retrt220242024
Glenwood220171995
Mountain Lk.220131992
Pine Mtn.220241996
Newsoms219971997
W Augusta120211996
Bald Knob120241992
Stanley119661966
Tryme119841984
Nat Tunnel120022002
Gr North Mtn120242017
Partlow119771977
New Market120252006
Putnam120111969
Covington119831966
Fincastle119661966
Covesville119681967
Carters Brdg119681968
Shipman120231983
Big Meadows120251993
Loft Mtn120231994

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.