Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Virginia
Cerulean Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+229%Since 1968
29Routes In State
54Years
Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in Virginia
long arc increasecomputed index
Cerulean Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 229% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.69 (95% range 0.29–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-7%Change by 2029
0.69Projected 2029 index
0.29–1.195% range
±31.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.65 | 0.24 | 1.1 |
| 2026 | 0.66 | 0.25 | 1.1 |
| 2027 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 1.1 |
| 2028 | 0.68 | 0.28 | 1.1 |
| 2029 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 1.1 |
Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia
| Front Royal | 24 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Big Meadows | 5 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Shenandoa Np | 4 | 2024 | 1994 |
| Ivanhoe | 4 | 1966 | 1966 |
| Isom | 3 | 2010 | 1969 |
| Rural Retrt | 2 | 2024 | 2024 |
| Glenwood | 2 | 2017 | 1995 |
| Mountain Lk. | 2 | 2013 | 1992 |
| Pine Mtn. | 2 | 2024 | 1996 |
| Newsoms | 2 | 1997 | 1997 |
| W Augusta | 1 | 2021 | 1996 |
| Bald Knob | 1 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Stanley | 1 | 1966 | 1966 |
| Tryme | 1 | 1984 | 1984 |
| Nat Tunnel | 1 | 2002 | 2002 |
| Gr North Mtn | 1 | 2024 | 2017 |
| Partlow | 1 | 1977 | 1977 |
| New Market | 1 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Putnam | 1 | 2011 | 1969 |
| Covington | 1 | 1983 | 1966 |
| Fincastle | 1 | 1966 | 1966 |
| Covesville | 1 | 1968 | 1967 |
| Carters Brdg | 1 | 1968 | 1968 |
| Shipman | 1 | 2023 | 1983 |
| Loft Mtn | 1 | 2023 | 1994 |
Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.