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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in West Virginia has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 168% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.17–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+168%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in West Virginia is projected to rise about 168% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.17–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.213.0
20271.60.203.0
20281.60.193.0
20291.60.182.9
20301.60.172.9

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stollings1120211986
Strange Crk820251982
Yawkey720241966
Breeden520241986
Washburn520221974
Josephs Mill520221993
Ringgold520252025
Clear Creek420231988
Three Forks420161973
Moundsville420241972
Mcdonald420231993
Welch320191980
Fayetteville319961989
Olcott320241966
Richwood319831982
Greer320121966
Ruthbelle320121975
Bismark320211977
Spencer220122005
Meadland220241997
Cedarville220231982
Shanghai220252002
Mo Of Seneca220191970
Monongah220221967
Smithfield220251993

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.