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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cerulean Warbler has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.000.68
20260.230.000.67
20270.220.000.66
20280.210.000.65
20290.200.000.64

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Bank919781968
Elk Valley420221970
Collinwood220241968
Lewis Forest219881966
Silver Pt220241977
Smokey Jct220211966
Jefferson Cty219721972
Signal Mtn120081979
Tiptonville119771974
Pawpaw119771973
Willis Sprng119971997
Tellico120041997
Big Sandy119661966
Mansfield120012001
Sweetlips119941994
Silerton119911991
Trenton119661966
Harbuck120031998
Pond Creek120091989
Indian Mound119971997
Wrigley120161966
Campbellsville119881969
Cornpone119961996
Petersburg119791966
Union Hill120112011

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniavermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.