BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Ohio has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 124% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.17–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+124%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 124% by 2029 — from 0.45 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.17–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.141.8
20260.980.151.8
20270.990.151.8
20280.990.161.8
20291.00.171.8

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tick Ridge1320191993
Shawnee S.F.1120001992
Shawnee S.F. 2820192001
Tar Hollow720241992
Pike S.F.520131992
Dell420191993
Zaleski S.F.320241992
Wilgus320031992
Coal Run319921966
Rome320231966
Ashley220111988
Garrettsvile219911971
Strongsville219871966
Baxter Ridge220071998
Newcomerstwn219941973
Bolins Mills220241966
Lockport119901988
Wayne N.F.120231992
Scioto Trail120131992
Pittsfield120221998
Mohican S.F.120241992
Wayland120091992
Middlefield119881970
Stonecreek120221996
Lenox120151969

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.