BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Michigan has increased: up 49% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+49%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±174%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±174%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.19
20260.090.000.19
20270.090.000.19
20280.090.000.19
20290.090.000.19

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.320121997
Barry S.G.A. 2320182013
Nashville320231968
New Buffalo220131992
Allegan Wma120102009
Almena120141994
Isabella120082008
Scottville120242003
Big Blue Lk120072007
Lawrence119701970
Bravo120221980
Galesburg119791979
Monterey120231978
Rochester119971997
Mottville119871975
Hartland119981997
No Bradley119931993
Homer120151986
Fowlerville119791979
Sand Lake120212012

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.