BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in New York has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in New York. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07
20300.030.000.07

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Philadelphia320251999
Catskills219951995
N Victory219711971
Churchville220061968
Highmarket219991978
Highland119841984
Rifton119801979
W Shokan120012001
Ghent120082008
Whitney Pt119991999
Mcdonough119851985
Romulus119891989
Dryden119831983
Macdougall120041976
Canadice L120041998
Cherry Hill119881969
E Youngstown120192019
Byron119891967
N Victory 2120081984
Cicero Ctr119871974
Alder Creek119871987
N Wilmurt119911991
Clinton119871971
Newcomb119721972
Naples119811967

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.