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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Arkansas has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 124% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+124%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Arkansas is projected to rise about 124% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.35
20260.160.000.35
20270.160.000.35
20280.160.000.35
20290.160.000.35

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stark419681968
Rudy220212013
Compton220221968
Ramsey119731970
Ozark Nf120212014
Marshall120172011
Boston Mtn.120241994
Crowley'S Ridge120242011
Sims120222019
Crows119681967
Poyen119741967
Hollywood119951978
Blakely119721968
Hatfield 2120232017
Rupert120231994
Lurton120161967
Zion120051974
Fulton119881988

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.