Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky
Cerulean Warbler in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-57%Since 1968
38Routes In State
58Years
Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in Kentucky
long arc declinecomputed index
Cerulean Warbler has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Kentucky is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-13%Change by 2029
0.28Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8295% range
±43.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| 2026 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| 2027 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| 2028 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| 2029 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky
| Pine Ridge | 8 | 1978 | 1966 |
| Levee 2 | 6 | 2019 | 2017 |
| Pippa Passes | 5 | 1997 | 1988 |
| Gesling | 5 | 1972 | 1972 |
| Beattyville 2 | 5 | 2024 | 2006 |
| Kehoe 2 | 4 | 2021 | 2006 |
| Kehoe | 4 | 1992 | 1972 |
| Lovelacevile | 3 | 1990 | 1973 |
| Levee | 3 | 1977 | 1966 |
| Carter | 3 | 2024 | 1976 |
| Campton | 3 | 2021 | 1979 |
| Cumberlnd Gp | 2 | 2010 | 1973 |
| Mammoth Cave | 2 | 2003 | 1995 |
| Monticello | 2 | 2022 | 1968 |
| Bardwell | 2 | 1979 | 1967 |
| Drakesboro | 2 | 1993 | 1973 |
| Brownsville | 1 | 2024 | 2023 |
| Shiloh | 1 | 1994 | 1987 |
| Canton | 1 | 1990 | 1970 |
| Hegira | 1 | 2023 | 1991 |
| Sunnybrook | 1 | 1969 | 1969 |
| Mckee | 1 | 1976 | 1973 |
| Beattyville | 1 | 2001 | 1966 |
| Kings Mtn | 1 | 1982 | 1966 |
| Mcbrayer | 1 | 1992 | 1992 |
Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.