BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cerulean Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cerulean Warbler has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cerulean Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Kentucky is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Kentucky is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.300.000.84
20260.290.000.84
20270.290.000.83
20280.280.000.83
20290.280.000.82

Cerulean Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge819781966
Levee 2620192017
Pippa Passes519971988
Gesling519721972
Beattyville 2520242006
Kehoe 2420212006
Kehoe419921972
Lovelacevile319901973
Levee319771966
Carter320241976
Campton320211979
Cumberlnd Gp220101973
Mammoth Cave220031995
Monticello220221968
Bardwell219791967
Drakesboro219931973
Brownsville120242023
Shiloh119941987
Canton119901970
Hegira120231991
Sunnybrook119691969
Mckee119761973
Beattyville120011966
Kings Mtn119821966
Mcbrayer119921992

Cerulean Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianalouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.