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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+351%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Missouri: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.060.29
20260.170.060.29
20270.180.060.29
20280.180.070.30
20290.180.070.30

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville620242002
Cascade320221999
Wesco320232021
Graniteville220212016
Bennett220242021
Mincy120232021
Deventer119831982
Pineville120162016
Miller120172017
Watson120032003
Akers119711971
Syracuse120162016
Hilda120082008
Marshfield120182018
Viburnum120232015
Doe Run120212019
Osage Beach120112005

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.