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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Missouri has surged: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+371%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Warbler in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.19 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.19 (95% range 0.07–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.060.29
20270.180.070.29
20280.180.070.29
20290.180.070.30
20300.190.070.30

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Centerville620252002
Cascade220251999
Wesco220252021
Graniteville220212016
Mincy120232021
Deventer119831982
Pineville120162016
Miller120172017
Watson120032003
Akers120251971
Syracuse120162016
Bennett120252021
Hilda120082008
Marshfield120182018
Viburnum120232015
Doe Run120212019
Osage Beach120112005

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.