BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Connecticut has surged: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+234%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Connecticut: up 234% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Connecticut is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.08–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.6695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Connecticut is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.08–0.66). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.060.64
20260.350.060.64
20270.360.070.65
20280.360.070.65
20290.370.080.66

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Uncasville320241977
No Woodbury320241999
Warren220051988
Long Hill220162016
Mystic120011979
Woodstock119941990
Westbrook119911984
Sherman120182002
Greenwich119741974
Danbury120171968
Mid Haddam120232006
Woodstock 2120192017

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.