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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Virginia has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Virginia: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.53.15.9
20264.63.16.0
20274.63.26.1
20284.73.26.1
20294.73.36.2

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Mtn.2620241996
Truhart2020241996
Front Royal1920241994
Glenwood1520231992
Isom1320241969
Rural Retrt1220241982
Pw Forest Pk1220091992
Bald Knob1120241992
Big Meadows1120241994
Iron Mountain 21120132012
Brandon920241992
Loft Mtn920231993
Waverly819871967
Walkers720231992
Elamsville620161979
Newsoms620241979
Dryden619981992
Gr North Mtn620241993
Shenandoa Np620241994
Iron Mtn.620111992
Iron Mountain 3620232014
Branchville520241966
Newville520241988
Nat Tunnel520241981
Ft Pickett N519951994

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.