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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+283%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Arkansas: up 283% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 3.9–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.6 (95% range 3.9–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.23.66.9
20265.33.77.0
20275.43.77.1
20285.53.87.2
20295.63.97.3

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Boston Mtn.3420241994
Ozark Nf1920241991
Hatfield 21620242017
Four Lakes1620011994
Princeton 21620222022
Waldron1520241967
Old Milo1420241967
Locust Bayou1420231967
Compton1220221967
Sims1220242010
Magazine Mtn1120211993
Lurton1020231967
Crowley'S Ridge920242011
Princeton920211998
Springhill820222010
Poyen 2820242008
Ramsey719971967
Rupert720241974
Stephens720242010
Ashdown520231985
Hollywood520241970
Dry Fork 2520242024
Hope420242001
Havana420212010
Nance420241993

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.