BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Arkansas has surged: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+347%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Arkansas: up 347% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.1–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.1–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 4.1–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.77.1
20275.53.87.2
20285.63.97.3
20295.74.07.4
20305.84.17.5

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine Mtn2620251993
Boston Mtn.2620251994
Ozark Nf2420251991
Stephens1720252010
Four Lakes1620011994
Princeton 21620222022
Sims1520252010
Locust Bayou1420231967
Waldron1320251967
Hatfield 21320252017
Old Milo1220251967
Compton1220221967
Dry Fork 21120252024
Crowley'S Ridge1020252011
Lurton1020231967
Princeton920211998
Springhill820222010
Ramsey719971967
Rupert720241974
Nance720251993
Ashdown520231985
Hollywood520241970
Rudy520252011
Hope420252001
Havana420212010

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.