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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Oklahoma has surged: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+349%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Oklahoma: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.21–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 0.72 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.21–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.180.79
20260.490.190.80
20270.500.200.80
20280.510.200.81
20290.520.210.82

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bethel820242001
Hee Mountain620241999
Big Cedar420241967
Ouachita Nf320241997
Mt. Herman220212002
Goodwater220212000
Pushmataha120132005
Holdenville119921991
Peoria119691969

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.