BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga citrina

Hooded Warbler has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+170%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,218RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Hooded Warbler

The Hooded Warbler (Setophaga citrina) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,218 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 28 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Hooded Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in surveyed states: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 1.1–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.3 (95% range 1.1–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.21.11.4
20271.31.11.4
20281.31.11.4
20291.31.11.5
20301.31.11.5

Where the Hooded Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Hooded Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Hooded Warbler Population Trend by State

Hooded Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+392%1968101
Arkansas+347%196946
Connecticut+198%197712
Delaware-24%19768
Florida-11%196849
Georgia+57%196899
Illinois-8%19819
Indiana+520%197122
Kentucky+97%196841
Louisiana+646%196972
Maryland+231%196854
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a1
Michigan+82%198415
Mississippi+875%197063
Missouri+371%198317
New Jersey+249%197120
New York16×196849
North Carolina+52%196896
Ohio21×196845
Oklahoma+365%19699
Pennsylvania+818%1968105
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a3
South Carolina-17%196846
Tennessee+321%196849
Texas+238%196935
Virginia+122%196879
West Virginia+183%196861
Wisconsin+25%200212

Hooded Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Hooded Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain22×196846
Oaks and Prairies+37%19959
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-50%197115
Prairie Hardwood Transition+97%198431
Central Hardwoods+363%196887
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+500%1969100
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+841%196940
Southeastern Coastal Plain+129%1968316
Appalachian Mountains+400%1968355
Piedmont+165%1968122
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+168%196876
Peninsular Florida-52%19699
Gulf Coastal Prairie-39%19697

Hooded Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 170% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.