BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga citrina

Hooded Warbler has surged: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+165%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,211RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Hooded Warbler

The Hooded Warbler (Setophaga citrina) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,211 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 28 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Hooded Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in surveyed states: up 165% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 1.1–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 1.1–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.21.01.4
20261.21.11.4
20271.21.11.4
20281.31.11.4
20291.31.11.5

Where the Hooded Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Hooded Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Hooded Warbler Population Trend by State

Hooded Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+347%1968101
Arkansas+283%196945
Connecticut+234%197712
Delaware-24%19768
Florida+5%196849
Georgia+52%196899
Illinois+34%19819
Indiana+548%197122
Kentucky+144%196840
Louisiana+680%196972
Maryland+241%196854
Massachusettsinsufficient datan/a1
Michigan+131%198415
Mississippi+878%197062
Missouri+351%198317
New Jersey+322%197119
New York13×196849
North Carolina+40%196896
Ohio20×196845
Oklahoma+349%19699
Pennsylvania+720%1968105
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a3
South Carolina-14%196845
Tennessee+326%196849
Texas+226%196935
Virginia+100%196879
West Virginia+152%196860
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a11

Hooded Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Hooded Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain18×196846
Oaks and Prairies+17%19959
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-39%197115
Prairie Hardwood Transition+114%198430
Central Hardwoods+370%196886
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+489%1969100
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+738%196939
Southeastern Coastal Plain+136%1968314
Appalachian Mountains+352%1968354
Piedmont+138%1968122
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+209%196875
Peninsular Florida-43%19699
Gulf Coastal Prairie-52%19697

Hooded Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 165% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.