BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 738% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+738%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 738% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.49–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+117%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 117% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.49–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.990.441.6
20261.00.451.6
20271.00.471.6
20281.00.481.6
20291.10.491.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI132022
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS92024
GonzalesLOUISIANA32019
South BendARKANSAS21973
CarlisleLOUISIANA21988
RoselandLOUISIANA22024
RamahLOUISIANA22019
BerwickLOUISIANA22018
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA22023
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA22024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI22024
TippoMISSISSIPPI22010
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI22010
EudoraARKANSAS12011
West TylerARKANSAS11982
SaffellARKANSAS11968
WilsonARKANSAS12012
BardwellKENTUCKY11989
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY12021
FreetownLOUISIANA12008
Morgan CityLOUISIANA11986
KeystoneLOUISIANA12011
ShawLOUISIANA11978
MayflowerLOUISIANA12002
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.