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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 489% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+489%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 489% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.614
2026106.714
2027106.914
2028117.114
2029117.214

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Flat CreekLOUISIANA482024
DibollTEXAS402024
GraysonLOUISIANA372021
FredTEXAS352024
Big Sandy BithTEXAS352024
EvelynLOUISIANA342024
WomackLOUISIANA332024
Derry 2LOUISIANA292024
Bon WierTEXAS282024
ClayLOUISIANA262024
GoodwillLOUISIANA232024
Mount UnionLOUISIANA222024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA212024
Fort JessupLOUISIANA212023
TroutLOUISIANA192024
Town BluffTEXAS192024
Alexander StTEXAS192024
Powell ParkTEXAS192021
Fishville 2LOUISIANA182024
NatchezLOUISIANA182024
EnterpriseLOUISIANA182024
CaledoniaTEXAS182024
LinvilleLOUISIANA172024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS162024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS162022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.