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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+500%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 500% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026116.914
2027117.114
2028117.315
2029117.415
2030117.615

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FredTEXAS412025
Mount UnionLOUISIANA392025
GraysonLOUISIANA372021
Flat CreekLOUISIANA362025
Bon WierTEXAS352025
Big Sandy BithTEXAS352024
EvelynLOUISIANA342024
WomackLOUISIANA332025
Magazine MtnARKANSAS262025
Alexander StTEXAS252025
EnterpriseLOUISIANA232025
DibollTEXAS232025
Powell Park 2TEXAS232025
Burr FerryLOUISIANA222025
Fort JessupLOUISIANA212023
LinvilleLOUISIANA212025
NatchezLOUISIANA212025
Town BluffTEXAS192025
Powell ParkTEXAS192021
WechesTEXAS192025
Derry 2LOUISIANA182025
CaledoniaTEXAS182025
StephensARKANSAS172025
Ivan 2LOUISIANA172025
Princeton 2ARKANSAS162022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.