BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Hooded Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has surged: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+168%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 168% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 167% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.69–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+167%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.69–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 167% by 2030 — from 0.45 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.69–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.631.6
20271.10.641.6
20281.20.661.7
20291.20.671.7
20301.20.691.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TruhartVIRGINIA202024
WalkersVIRGINIA72023
BrandonVIRGINIA72025
Island CreekMARYLAND62025
GloucesterVIRGINIA62025
Pt RepublicMARYLAND41989
La PlataMARYLAND42009
HughesvilleMARYLAND42022
Golden HillMARYLAND41969
White StoneVIRGINIA42025
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT32024
No WoodburyCONNECTICUT32024
CheltenhamMARYLAND32003
Pr FrederickMARYLAND32023
AlbionNEW-JERSEY31992
Port RoyalVIRGINIA32025
SharpsVIRGINIA32025
WarrenCONNECTICUT22005
Long HillCONNECTICUT22016
PomfretMARYLAND22023
NewarkMARYLAND21998
BerlinMARYLAND22011
GreenwichNEW-JERSEY21974
PomonaNEW-JERSEY22024
PurdyNEW-YORK21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.