BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Kentucky has surged: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+97%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Kentucky: up 97% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 427% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.3–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+427%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 427% by 2030 — from 0.64 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.3–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.15.3
20273.21.15.3
20283.31.15.4
20293.31.25.4
20303.41.35.5

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cumberlnd Gp3720181966
Beattyville 22320242006
Mammoth Cave2120141995
Mammoth Cave North1820132009
Phelps1319971979
Pippa Passes1019971988
Staffordsvil1019971996
Carter820251976
Brownsville720242022
Monticello720221968
Levee 2720192007
Hegira620241988
Paintsville619951979
Campton520211980
Pine Ridge419781966
Apex320252005
Beattyville320011966
Levee319821966
Kehoe 2320242005
Demunbruns320191966
Kehoe319921972
Canton220161980
Bays Fork220102010
Lebanon Junction220222013
Keysburg119821972

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianalouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.