BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in New Jersey has surged: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+322%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in New Jersey: up 322% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in New Jersey is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.21–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in New Jersey is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.21–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.180.69
20260.440.190.69
20270.450.190.70
20280.450.200.70
20290.460.210.71

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kemah Lake420241981
Albion319921971
Greenwich219741971
Pomona220241978
Del Haven119911991
Ancora119661966
Bennett Mill120001997
Sandbrook119941994
Holmansville120092009
New Bedford120071970
Hope119901990
Midvale120162016
High Point120191988
Dover120191988
Friendship120241982
Cape May Ch119951995
Pedricktown119951995
Winslow120241991
Ramseysburg120141996

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.