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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.82.35.4
20273.82.35.4
20283.92.35.4
20293.92.35.4
20303.92.35.4

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Highlands4620251994
Fontana2420251968
Cullowhee2420251974
Mashoes2019821971
Waterville2020251994
Oteen1920241976
Brevard1720251968
Table Rock1720221994
Murphy1420241996
Linville1320251981
Rheasville1320172005
Kyle1320241994
Shallotte1019911966
Gupton920252001
French Broad River920252001
Uwharrie Nf920011993
Andrews919981994
Hendersonvil820251996
Cherokee820252011
California720131972
Arcola720251971
Youngsville720251968
Reelsboro720191998
Marshall720251990
California 2620252014

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.