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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in North Carolina has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Hooded Warbler in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 2.3–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.82.35.4
20263.82.35.4
20273.82.35.4
20283.82.35.4
20293.92.35.4

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fontana3720241968
Highlands3620241994
Brevard2520241968
Linville2220241981
Mashoes2019821971
Waterville2020241994
Oteen1920241976
Cullowhee1720241974
Table Rock1720221994
Murphy1420241996
Rheasville1320172005
Kyle1320241994
Marshall1120241990
Shallotte1019911966
Arcola1020241971
Uwharrie Nf920011993
Andrews919981994
California720131972
Reelsboro720191998
Todd620231995
Chowan River620062002
Jamesville520241983
California 2520242014
Jackson520171995
French Broad River520242001

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.