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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

21×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 37% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.43.15.8
20274.53.25.8
20284.63.25.9
20294.73.36.0
20304.73.46.1

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow4720241992
Zaleski S.F.3220251992
Mohican S.F.2420251992
Shawnee S.F. 22020192001
Wayne N.F.1920251992
Scioto Trail1920131992
Shawnee S.F.1320001992
Bolins Mills1320251966
Pike S.F.1220131992
Ray820251992
Tick Ridge720191993
South Olive620251993
Stonecreek520251997
Dresden520251973
Garrettsvile419911980
Middlefield420161973
Birmingham320241988
Pomeroy320221966
Keene320221993
Lenox220231971
Baxter Ridge220231998
Smithfield220251990
Wilgus220171992
New Marshfld220251966
Dell220191994

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.