BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Ohio has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

20×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Ohio: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Ohio is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.4–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.43.15.7
20264.53.25.8
20274.63.25.9
20284.73.36.0
20294.73.46.1

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar Hollow4720241992
Zaleski S.F.3220241992
Wayne N.F.2220241992
Mohican S.F.2120241992
Shawnee S.F. 22020192001
Scioto Trail1920131992
Shawnee S.F.1320001992
Pike S.F.1220131992
Dresden820241973
Tick Ridge720191993
Stonecreek620241997
South Olive620241993
Ray620241992
Garrettsvile419911980
Middlefield420161973
Bolins Mills420241966
Birmingham320241988
Pomeroy320221966
Keene320221993
Lenox220231971
Baxter Ridge220231998
Wilgus220171992
Dell220191994
Coal Run219921967
Hiram220191992

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.