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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Texas has surged: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+238%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Texas: up 238% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.54–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.54–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.462.1
20271.30.482.1
20281.30.502.1
20291.30.522.1
20301.30.542.1

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fred4120251995
Big Sandy Bith3520242015
Bon Wier3520251996
Alexander St2520251995
Diboll2320251968
Powell Park 22320252022
Town Bluff1920251967
Powell Park1920211995
Weches1920251995
Caledonia1820251981
Livingston1420251971
New Waverly1420251969
Union Hill1220241994
Neches Bith920172016
Lance Rosier Bith820192014
Morton720251973
Liberty Hill620252023
Crossroads520251993
Mt. Selman520251999
Easton 2420252021
Massey Lake220252007
Burton219991999
Smyrna 2220252011
Oak Grove 2120242007
Paige120152015

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.