BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in New York has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

13×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in New York: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.49–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.79 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.49–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.440.82
20260.640.450.83
20270.650.470.84
20280.670.480.85
20290.680.490.86

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Swain 2820242011
Mt Morris820241982
Canadice L520241980
Cattaraugus520191983
Branchport420241995
Sheridan420241969
Pulaski420242006
Randolph320181970
Rifton219781978
Coventryvile220132013
Trumansburg220232001
Phillips Cr220241995
Hamburg220181985
E Youngstown220222005
Byron220162009
Kasoag220242011
Purdy219941986
Bedford119901981
Somers119751975
Middletown119891989
Cobleskill120172015
Duanesburg120152015
Corbettsvile120241993
Cayuga120182018
E Newark120152015

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.