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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Hooded Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 321% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+321%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Hooded Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Hooded Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 320% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Hooded Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.6–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Hooded Warbler in Tennessee is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.6–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.73.36.2
20274.83.46.2
20284.93.56.3
20295.03.56.4
20305.03.66.5

Hooded Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Hooded Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tellico2920251995
Mecca2620231994
Trace Collinwood2220182016
Fish Springs2020231966
Harbuck1920231994
Elk Valley1920251970
Willis Sprng1320231994
Cornpone1120241990
Jasper720251967
Cades Cove720251990
Trace Lewis620172013
Silver Pt620241971
Smokey Jct620221966
Mcfarland519931967
Jones Gap420191982
Silerton420241984
Lewis Forest320251967
Bradyville320211970
Oliver Spgs320221966
Walland319891966
Whiteville220231991
Mansfield220251984
Sweetlips220231996
Collinwood220251967
Newfound Gap220251990

Hooded Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.